(Washington, D.C.) – Today, The LIBRE Institute releases The Hispanic Margin of Victory Project(MVP) for 2016. The report – which is the latest edition following a similar release in 2014 – identifies key races in which the Latino vote holds the potential to determine the outcome of the race. The report projects Hispanic turnout based on participation rates in the last three presidential elections by state, and applies that projection to the most recent Census Bureau estimates of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. Authored by Valerio Martinelli of The LIBRE Institute, the report identifies thirteen races (eleven in the US House and two in the US Senate) where the Hispanic vote is estimated to largely influence their outcome.
Among the report’s key findings:
- While 27.3 million Hispanics are eligible to vote, slightly less than half are expected to participate in November according to our estimates.
- It is estimated that Hispanics will comprise 9.4 percent of all voters in 2016.
- Key races where turnout of eligible Hispanics is expected to be higher than the national average (49.2 percent) include the US Senate race in Florida (65 percent estimated turnout), FL-26 race (65 percent estimated turnout), CO-06 (56 percent estimated turnout), the US Senate race in Nevada (55 percent estimated turnout), and NV-4 (55 percent estimated turnout).
- Hispanic voters will be critical in key US Senate races in Florida and Nevada.
Download and read the Hispanic Margin of Victory Project here.
Daniel Garza, President and Chairman of The LIBRE Institute, released the following statement:
«With each passing year, the voice of the Hispanic community becomes stronger and more influential in a host of ways. As this report makes clear, that includes the electoral process. Latino voters in states like Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Texas, and other states, will help determine the path taken by the elected leaders in Washington. This shows the importance – for all policymakers – of articulating a clear message about how we can work together to grow the economy and promote economic opportunity for all – which will benefit not only the Hispanic community, but all Americans.»